A Baker's Dozen Predictions for 2010

[Geoffrey]

A Baker's Dozen Predictions for 2010

1. At least one major book will have several different enhanced ebook editions.
2. Here come some new retail book outlets, but can publishers afford the risk of selling to them?
3. Thanks to digital, there is no minimum length for a book anymore.
4. Ebooks will require a new industry directory (and it won’t be printed.)
5. Big publishers start to match their offerings to their marketing capability.
6. Ebooks become significant revenue contributors for many titles.
7. Circumstances will outrun the ebook “windowing” strategy.
8. In the digital world, geographical territories will be found not to make much sense.
9. Authors with clout start looking more like publishers.
10. The “shakeout” in ebook delivery mechanisms won’t start this year; proliferation rules in 2010.
11. Retailers will demonstrate that they have more at stake with each file they sell than the revenue from that sale.
12. We will see greater integration of ebook offerings with other products and services.
13. Book publishers will have to admit to real confusion about what the product is that they produce.

I found this blog posting via a link from Huffington Post's book section.  While I included the author's actual predictions, its worth it to read his comments on them in the article .... I found it to be an interesting summary of many of the conversations we've seen here and on other sites regarding epublishing and the changes coming to the market. 

They're predictions for 2010 but some I think he has understated the length of time it will take to become commonplace.  For example, geographic territories are obsolete in publishing but it will take much longer than a year for national laws to distinguish a difference between print and ebook publishing rights.

One of the things he didn't mention is a rise in independent publishing.  Perhaps he thinks this will not become a trend until after 2010, but I think we're on the cusp of a golden age of self-publishing and that will impact the existing and new publishing models ...

[The Hooded Claw]

Self-publishing both pleases and worries me, since it is a way for people with something unconventional to reach the public and be successful even if they can't get a hearing from the traditional publishers.  It pleases me because we may see some really cool and innovative stuff this way.  It worries me, because we may see the market flooded with a bunch of garbage that drowns out good products.  Check out the iPhone applications store if you want to see what I mean.

I think this does open the possibility of a different gatekeeper arising.  These predictions stress authors, which I certainly think will happen.  But I think editors may have an opportunity here too.  Or even "personalities" who don't write or edit or publish, if they can somehow get enough attention to distinguish themselves from the herd.

[earthlydelites]

A Baker's Dozen Predictions for 2010

1. At least one major book will have several different enhanced ebook editions.
2. Here come some new retail book outlets, but can publishers afford the risk of selling to them?
3. Thanks to digital, there is no minimum length for a book anymore.
4. Ebooks will require a new industry directory (and it won’t be printed.)
5. Big publishers start to match their offerings to their marketing capability.
6. Ebooks become significant revenue contributors for many titles.
7. Circumstances will outrun the ebook “windowing” strategy.
8. In the digital world, geographical territories will be found not to make much sense.
9. Authors with clout start looking more like publishers.
10. The “shakeout” in ebook delivery mechanisms won’t start this year; proliferation rules in 2010.
11. Retailers will demonstrate that they have more at stake with each file they sell than the revenue from that sale.
12. We will see greater integration of ebook offerings with other products and services.
13. Book publishers will have to admit to real confusion about what the product is that they produce.

I found this blog posting via a link from Huffington Post's book section.  While I included the author's actual predictions, its worth it to read his comments on them in the article .... I found it to be an interesting summary of many of the conversations we've seen here and on other sites regarding epublishing and the changes coming to the market. 

They're predictions for 2010 but some I think he has understated the length of time it will take to become commonplace.  For example, geographic territories are obsolete in publishing but it will take much longer than a year for national laws to distinguish a difference between print and ebook publishing rights.

One of the things he didn't mention is a rise in independent publishing.  Perhaps he thinks this will not become a trend until after 2010, but I think we're on the cusp of a golden age of self-publishing and that will impact the existing and new publishing models ...

I tried to cut and paste bits out of your original post so it wasn't such a long quote but it wasn't working for me...

the poins that stood out for me are the georaphical territories, you are right, it may take a bit longer than one year to solve, but if they put their minds to it... maybe? we've already seen some progress with publishers agreeing to sell books to different countries recently, so maybe its not too far fetched.

And I agree, there will be a rise in self-publishing. Its so easy to do, and with the number of members of the boards here who are self published gives a fair indication of it becoming a rising trend.... and why not!

[Geoffrey]

As with any Golden Age, there will be the dreck coming along with the masterpieces.  In the Golden Age of Hollywood in the 30's, 40's and 50's there were a lot of horrible movies made.  I think a self-publishing golden age will be the same thing.  There are quite a few novels that don't get published by the traditional houses because they're awful ... but there are also plenty that are brilliant.

I do agree there may well be a rise of new gatekeepers and/or other personalities or groups which we may start following to find the gems ... how that will look (and whether or not it will look one way) remains to be seen.  But I'm looking forward to the variety of novels and the new styles and trends these indie authors will create.

[Malweth]

You'll see a good many books from authors who would not wish to go through the many motions of getting published. What looks like a lot of effort (non-writing effort, especially) is drastically cut by self-e-publishing. This will make it attractive for many. I think we'll find the problems in quality will be due to lack of editing as much as poorly formulated ideas.

[David Derrico]

I have no doubt that more and more tools will arrive that help readers separate the wheat from the chaff. Yes, the elimination of barriers to publication will mean that we will be exposed to lots of new stuff, some of which will be good, and some of which will be terribly bad. But sampling, reviews, and boards like this one already help readers pick out the diamonds in the rough. I would expect to see more review sites either devoted to indie authors or who at least review the work of indie authors. Yes, there will be a wider range of quality out there, but we will have a wider range of tools with which to pick out what we want.